Oscars 2018: Who Will Win, Who Should Win, And Who I’m Rooting For

Full admission: I was unable to see every Oscar nominated film for 2018’s award ceremony.

Yes, I have failed as a cinephile.

There are several reasons for this obvious mistake, but I won’t get into them here. But I still want to give my two cents about the Oscars. Like year, I’m only concentrating on the major categories as well as the screenwriting awards.

Because I write. The end.

Best Picture

The Shape of Water source: Fox Searchlight Pictures/IMDB

*Links to my in depth reviews (At least the ones I have reviewed) are linked below*

Nominees: Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

WHO WILL WIN: The Shape of Water

WHO SHOULD WIN: Get Out

WHO I’M ROOTING FOR: The Shape of Water, Get Out, Call Me By Your Name

First things first: Let’s eliminate the films that won’t win. Dunkirk was an early favorite for me for its technical achievements and masterful visual storytelling. But the Oscars will most likely award Christopher Nolan’s unique take on one of the defining moments of World War II with several technical awards (And deservedly so). Darkest Hour, the other World War II film on the nominations list, seems to be more of a showcase for Gary Oldman, so that may work against it.

The Post is a good film, but it’s been done before. Steven Spielberg does a solid job, but the film is a standard Hollywood “issue” flick that is far from the best of 2017…and this is coming from someone who worships at the alter of Spielberg. I was disappointed by Lady Bird, and much of its early love has faded over the awards season. It will get its wins in the writing categories. Phantom Thread is something of a dark horse, but nothing points to it winning.

Of all the nominations, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is my least favorite. A movie I feel is severely overrated, Three Billboards suffers from troubling takes on racial issues and wild shifts in tone. But it has been getting a lot of love this awards season and I fear that Hollywood will pat itself on the back by rewarding a privileged point of view on rural America.

Now, we’re down to my three favorites. The Shape of Water and Call Me By Your Name are both beautiful films about loving absolutely despite any barrier. Both touched me in very emotional ways, with The Shape of Water leaving me a bawling mess at the end. The Shape of Water seems to be the favorite going into the Oscars while only a few look to Call Me By Your Name as a dark horse to win.

Get Out source: Universal Pictures

Ultimately, Jordan Peele’s Get Out should win. Now I know what you’re thinking…my initial rating for the film was a nine out of ten. The Shape of Water was a ten out of ten, while Call Me By Your Name was a nine and a half out of ten…how could Get Out be the best film of the year for me?

I saw Get Out in the beginning of 2017 and my initial review was written after my very first viewing. In every subsequent viewing, I have grown to love the movie more and more. It’s a movie that defies categorization…it’s thrilling, funny, and smart. The underlying message and social commentary are absolutely brilliant and masterfully executed. It’s filmmaking at its bravest because it takes chances and that should always be rewarded.

While I would be overjoyed if The Shape of Water wins the Oscar, I may do a victory lap around my neighborhood if Get Out should win.

Lead Actor

Timothee Chalamet in Call Me By Your Name source: Sony Pictures Classics/IMDB

Nominees: Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name) Daniel Day-Lewis, (Phantom Thread), Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out), Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq)

WHO WILL WIN: Gary Oldman

WHO SHOULD WIN: Timothee Chalamet

WHO I’M ROOTING FOR: Timothee Chalamet, Gary Oldman

The Academy loves to award actors they should have recognized for previous performances. Gary Oldman seems to be the latest of those actors, though from what I have read, he deserves the praise for his portrayal of Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour. He’s one of my favorite actors, so I would be perfectly happy if he wins.

Daniel Day-Lewis may get some love since he is retiring and while I haven’t seen Phantom Thread, many of my reviewer friends say he is deserving of the praise. But the other awards haven’t shown the usual adoration this season, so he may not have much of a chance.

Daniel Kaluuya is great in Get Out and his performance is much of the reason why the film works. But he hasn’t been getting much hardware this season. I would love it if he wins, but the odds are low. Denzel Washington is amazing in almost every role he takes, but honestly the nomination for the little seen Roman J. Israel, Esq. feels like the Academy trying to stay away from another “Oscars So White” controversy. I’m not saying he isn’t deserving, it just felt like the nomination came out of nowhere.

Timothee Chalamet’s subtle and emotionally devastating performance in Call Me By Your Name is simply amazing. The young actor deserves all the praise he gets and I would love to see him accept an Oscar. However, it seems like the Academy has its eye on Oldman this year.

Lead Actress

Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water source: Fox Searchlight Pictures/IMDB

Nominees: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water), Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Margot Robbie (I, Tonya), Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird), Meryl Streep (The Post)

WHO WILL WIN: Frances McDormand

WHO SHOULD WIN: Sally Hawkins

WHO I’M ROOTING FOR: Sally Hawkins

This is a tough category. It feels like this one could go anywhere despite Frances McDormand emerging as a favorite. While I didn’t like the film she was in, McDormand was actually one of the highlights of the film. Portraying a woman consumed by the pain of a devastating personal loss, the veteran actor never overplays it.

Margot Robbie has gotten some positive buzz about her role in I, Tonya, but that hasn’t translated to many awards this season. On the other hand, Saoirse Ronan’s turn as the title character of Lady Bird has been awarded several times already and it wouldn’t be surprising to see her walk away with the Oscar. She did a great job portraying a spoiled teenager. Many will joke that Meryl Streep’s nomination is yet another obligatory nod to the veteran actor. But her role in The Post is one of the highlights of the film.

But Sally Hawkins’ largely silent role in The Shape of Water is my personal favorite. Those of you who follow this blog know I absolutely love visual storytelling and largely silent protagonists. Hawkins’ Elisa is far from a gimmick silent character…she is probably one of the most human characters that 2017’s films offered. I’m rooting hard for Hawkins in this category.

Supporting Actor

Sam Rockwell and Frances McDormand in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri source: Fox Searchlight Pictures/IMDB

Nominees: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project), Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water), Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World), Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

WHO WILL WIN: Sam Rockwell

WHO SHOULD WIN: Sam Rockwell

WHO I’M ROOTING FOR: Richard Jenkins, Armie Hammer

This is pretty much Sam Rockwell’s category to lose. Three Billboards is a troubling film for me, and Rockwell’s Dixon is the source of much of that trouble. The character is an outright racist and incredibly unlikable.

And yet, you can’t take your eyes off of him.

The friend I saw Three Billboards with said, “Damn you Sam Rockwell! You’re making me root for a racist!” It speaks to an actor’s talent when an actor can make a despicable character sympathetic, and and Rockwell does just that. I hate saying this…but he deserves the award.

However, Woody Harrelson is solid in his role as the Sheriff of Ebbing in Three Billboards, but it doesn’t seem like an award worthy performance. Christopher Plummer’s nomination just feels like a big f*** you to Kevin Spacey, the controversial actor he replaced in All the Money in the World, a film many of my reviewer friends say is just okay. While I love Willem Dafoe, I have not seen The Florida Project.

Rockwell’s only real competition in my view is Richard Jenkins. His character is more than just a lovable side kick to Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water and I would love it if he won.

Armie Hammer in Call Me By Your Name source: Sony Pictures Classics/IMDB

The real crime? That Armie Hammer was not even nominated in this category. Immensely charismatic as Oliver, he also brings a very real vulnerability to the character in Call Me By Your Name.

Tell me there’s a write in vote and the Academy can remedy this…

TELL ME!!!

Supporting Actress

Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird source: A24/IMDB

Nominees: Mary J. Blige (Mudbound), Allison Janney (I, Tonya), Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread), Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird), Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

WHO WILL WIN: Allison Janney

WHO SHOULD WIN: Laurie Metcalf

WHO I’M ROOTING FOR: Laurie Metcalf

This looks to be a battle between two acting styles: The flashier, close to being over the top performance versus the subtle and realistic portrayal. Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf seem to be the two favorites in this category, with the former having an edge.

You know me…I usually favor the more subtle characters. Laurie Metcalf portrays one of the most realistic and compelling film mothers in Lady Bird. But I’ve always been a sucker for an over the top performance if done well. Because I haven’t seen I, Tonya, I can’t make a definitive statement, so I have to rely on what I’ve seen so far. Janney seems to be getting the most awards so far, so I’m leaning towards her to win.

There is some buzz that Lesley Manville may emerge as a dark horse to win since Janney and Metcalfe may split some votes. Octavia Spencer is fun in The Shape of Water, emerging as more than simple comic relief. I don’t think she will win though. And I have not seen Mudbound so I can’t say anything about Mary J. Blige’s performance.

Best Director

Jordan Peele source: Universal Pictures/Internet Movie Database

Nominees: Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk), Jordan Peele (Get Out), Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird), Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread), Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)

WHO WILL WIN: Guillermo Del Toro

WHO SHOULD WIN: Jordan Peele

WHO I’M ROOTING FOR: Guillermo Del Toro, Jordan Peele

Christopher Nolan is one of my favorite directors going today, but I can’t see him winning this category, no matter how much of an achievement Dunkirk is. Paul Thomas Anderson is a master, but Phantom Thread hasn’t received as many accolades as his previous work. Greta Gerwig’s nomination is great and she could pull off an upset win here, but Lady Bird is still problematic to me.

Guillermo Del Toro has created something truly special with The Shape of Water. It’s a visually stunning cinematic fairy tale that tells a human story. It’s a nearly flawless film.

On the other hand, Jordan Peele dropped a bomb on the cinematic world with Get Out. Like I said above in the Best Picture category, the film defies genre…it’s just an amazing film. No scene…no single visual…is wasted. Each performance is pitch perfect. Peele truly deserves this category, though I would still love to see Del Toro win.

Adapted Screenplay

Call Me By Your Name source: Sony Pictures Classics/IMDB

Nominees: Call Me By Your Name-James Ivory, The Disaster ArtistScott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, LoganScott Frank, James Mangold, and Michael Green, Molly’s Game-Aaron Sorkin, Mudbound-Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

WHO WILL WIN: Call Me By Your Name

WHO SHOULD WIN: Call Me By Your Name

WHO I’M ROOTING FOR: Call Me By Your Name

The comic book nerd in me absolutely loves that Logan was nominated in this category, but this is probably where the Academy will give Call Me By Your Name it’s Oscar. I had some issues with the pacing of the film, as though some scenes were directly lifted from the book.

Yet, Call Me By Your Name uses that deliberate pacing to give us a view of the entire affair between Elio and Oliver. It’s a great choice by James Ivory and he definitely deserves the award.

Original Screenplay

The Shape of Water source: Fox Searchlight Pictures/IMDB

Nominees: The Big Sick-Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, Get Out-Jordan Peele, Lady Bird-Greta Gerwig, The Shape of Water-Guillermo Del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri-Martin McDonagh

WHO WILL WIN: Lady Bird

WHO SHOULD WIN: Get Out

WHO I’M ROOTING FOR: Get Out, The Shape of Water, The Big Sick

As much as I disliked Lady Bird, one of its strengths is its strong script. The dialogue, pacing and eventual ending are all well executed. And since the Academy may not award Lady Bird in the other major categories, this may be where the film gets its award.

Ultimately, I feel like there are superior scripts in this category. It’s obvious by this point, but I love nearly everything involving The Shape of Water. And I have to show love to my fellow Asian writer Kumail Nanjiani and The Big Sick.

In the end, Get Out is the most original film so its screenplay should get this award easily. It won’t, but it should. Not only is it a tightly written film, Jordan Peele ratchets up the tension in a brilliant way. He understands pacing, but he also uses the very real tension people of color feel every day to bring the film’s conclusion into question. It’s one of the best moments I have seen in film this decade.

My Superb Owl

While I wasn’t able to watch every film nominated this year, I managed to get in quite a few great ones. Here are some of my choices for the other categories:

Best Animated Film-Coco

Cinematography-Blade Runner 2049-Roger Deakins

Original Score-The Shape of Water-Alexandre Desplat

Original Song-Remember Me from Coco-Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez

Now excuse me while I try to find an Oscar viewing party.

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